Energy is the basic need of human's life and development. With
the sustained rapid economic development, non-renewable
resources such as oil are limited in earth and gradually running
out.
According to the several assessments by
International Energy Association (IEA),
the massive industrialized exploitation of petroleum will come to an end in about
fifty years.
Limited crude oil supplies and refining capacity, and
rising concern over environmental degradation provide ethanol with a good
market outlook.. Ethanol will be increasingly used for environmental protection,
energy conservation and agricultural products transformation.
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Future of Ethanol Fuel and Additives
Ethanol is one of the best tools
to fight air pollution from vehicles. Ethanol contains 35% oxygen.
Adding oxygen to fuel results in more complete fuel combustion, thus
reducing harmful tailpipe emissions. Ethanol gasoline and ethanol diesel will be greatly promoted in the
future.
The government in the United States has implemented the
vigorous development program of ethanol fuel with the target of
increasing the ethanol fuel consumption (excluding ethanol diesel)
up to 4.4 billion gallon/year (13.6 million t/year) from 1.5 billion
gallon/year (4.5 million t/year) by 2011.
FACT: In 2005, the ethanol industry
supported the creation of more than 153,725 jobs in all sectors of
the U.S. economy, boosting U.S. household income by $5.7 billion.
Graphic Source: FRA (Renewable Fuels
Association)
January 2007 Statistics
(mg = million gallons; b/d = barrels per day)
Fuel Ethanol
Production
488.1 mg
375,000 b/d
Fuel Ethanol
Stocks
361.0 mg
20.8 days of
reserve
Fuel Ethanol
Exports
0.0mg^
n/a
Fuel Ethanol
Imports
44.4 mg*
n/a
*Source: U.S.
International Trade Commission
The study report provided by the
University of Tennessee forecasts the achievement of 60 billion
gallons of ethanol and 1.6 billion gallons of biodiesel per year:
• Can be achieved without using CRP lands,
• Will be fostered by research increasing agricultural productivity
and commercialization of cellulosics to ethanol,
• Is projected to result in a cumulative increase in net farm income
over the 2007-2030 period of $210 billion,
• Is estimated to impact the nation's economy by $350 billion and
2.4 million jobs, with much of these impacts occurring in the
nation's rural economies,
• Will provide for displacement of more than 20% of the gasoline by
2030; potentially reducing oil imports by $52 billion, and
• Can result in cumulative displacement of 10.48 billion barrels of
oil, and a potential import reduction of $629 billion through 2030. Source: Agriculture Economics by UT
Future of Ethanol Fuel Cells
Ethanol can be used as the fuel for fuel cells. Ethanol fuel cell is
widely used in low temperature fuel cells such as phone cells,
notebook computer batteries and other portable power fuel cell in
10~20 years. Ethanol has been identified as a safe, convenient,
practical fuel cell. This new type fuel cell will occupy 30~40%
market percentage and the capacity will be 5 times as much as now
(mainly cellulosic ethanol)
Future of Ethylene-based Ethanol Petro-chemistry
Ethanol will become the basic raw material for ethylene-based
petrochemical industry. Ethanol is predicted to replace ethylene in
the future.
New technology will break through the concept of grain-ethanol. With
the application of modern technology and gene research technology,
there has been a breakthrough in promoting ethanol production. The
rapid conversion of xylose yeast has been applicable, which has
changed the resource-shortage status of grain-based ethanol.
Cellulosic ethanol production will proves more economic and
industrialized in 10 years. Cellulose is the most abundant renewable
energy in the earth. Cellulose as the raw material of ethanol will
meet the great demands in ending-oil era and post-oil era.